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[originally published in RealClear Energy]
Dreaming about the future of automobiles has been a staple of American life since Henry Ford introduced the Model T in 1908. Today, our vision of the future of American automobiles is inexorably intertwined with efforts to reduce carbon emissions and climate change. Many are focused on electrification as the only way to achieve this goal. But the facts tell a different story. To meet our ambitious climate goals, we must develop an inclusive, all-of-the-above strategy that incorporates low-carbon advanced biofuels to complement the electrification market and extend the reach of low-carbon transit.
Consider the cooling consumer demand across the entire EV market. Between Q4 of 2023 and Q1 of 2024 there was a 7.3% decrease in the number of EVs sold. Meanwhile, hybrid vehicles that combine electrical technologies alongside traditional liquid fuels are increasingly popular for Americans, partly due to the slow rollout of EV charging stations. Even consumers in California, easily the country’s top EV market, are voicing concerns about the lack of charging infrastructure to support EVs.
These datapoints suggest we may not achieve our goal of having 50% of all new vehicle sales be electric by 2030. Some projections have even determined that by 2050, EVs will make up 60% of new car sales, but the majority of cars on the road will still be powered by traditional liquid fuels. After 13 months straight of new heat records, we need to implement a revised strategy that delivers results now.
Taking immediate action by pursuing all available technologies that help to reduce U.S. transportation-based emissions is the right step. Advanced biofuels, which are renewable liquid fuels mandated by Congress to achieve at least 50% reduction of lifecycle emissions, will play a critical role. They can be used by vehicles with internal combustion engines, including hybrid options preferred by consumers. If incorporated into our emissions reduction strategy, advanced biofuels will quickly help to reduce the roughly 1.5 billion tons of emissions from U.S. vehicles annually.
Liquid advanced biofuels can also have a significant impact outside of the U.S. Many gas-engine cars end up in developing countries once consumers from the U.S. or other wealthy nations are done with them. Low-carbon advanced biofuels can help power these vehicles until electrical technologies are more cheaply and widely available. And even well after – if hybrid vehicles continue being market leaders.
The emissions reduction opportunity offered by advanced biofuels have been noticed by leading automobile producers. “Investing in the production of low-carbon liquid fuels is an incredibly important thing to do,” said Toyota Motor Chief Scientist and Toyota Research Institute CEO Gill Pratt at RealClears’ recent Energy Future Forum. “It’s not a so-called ‘distraction,’ it’s actually what we need to do in order to get [to net zero by 2050] because there’s not enough personal capital in the hands of billions of people around the world to simply say ‘Okay, I’m going to throw out my car and get a new one’” (see the Pratt video at the top of this article).
This all-of-the-above approach has already been adopted by major automobile producers. In 2017 General Motors expanded its offerings of cars that can use B20 biodiesel blends. “With biodiesel production and retail distribution expanding, and so many proven benefits, we believe more fleets will embrace the technology as part of their sustainability plans,” said General Motors Director of Commercial Product and Medium Duty Product John Schwegman.
Similarly, in 2022 Nissan Motor entered a 24-hour endurance race with a sports car run entirely on carbon-neutral biofuel. “This demanding race will bring many valuable learnings to develop competitive engines compatible with carbon-neutral fuel,” said Nissan Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta ahead of the event.
Beyond cars, advanced biofuels can also play a critical role in reducing emissions from heavy-duty vehicles that cannot be easily electrified, like marine vessels, long-haul trucks, rail, and planes. Synthetic aviation fuel (SAF), an advanced biofuel used by the aviation industry to meet their goal of net zero emissions by 2050, is an excellent example. Production capacity is soaring in the U.S. and could increase to nearly 30,000 barrels per day this year.
SAF’s success is thanks in part to the landmark Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivized the production and use of advanced biofuels in aviation. It’s time for Washington to do more to support the broader suite of low-carbon sustainable fuels, starting with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).
The RFS, which sets renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for the quantity of low-carbon liquid transportation fuel required to replace or reduce fossil fuel usage, is set to be updated next year. RVOs were last revised in 2023, and while they were a step in the right direction towards an all-of-the-above approach that incorporates advanced biofuels, there is still more work that needs to be done. Prioritizing low-carbon liquid fuels and recognizing their rapidly growing production capacity in the next RVO is a step we must take to ensure success in our transportation-based emissions reductions efforts.
It is important that we address emissions from America’s fleet of passenger and industry vehicles. Electrification should play a role in this mission, but not at the exclusion of other proven technologies. For the sake of our planet, we must explore all emission reduction options available to us, including those offered by low-carbon advanced biofuels.
Michael McAdams is president of the Advanced Biofuel Association.
